Spring Weather Swings Continue as Strong El Niño Looms

Spring Weather

2:00

As winter gives way to spring, many parts of rural America are experiencing dramatic temperature swings paired with inconsistent winter weather. While it may feel unusual, experts say this kind of pattern is actually right on track for the season.

According to agricultural meteorologist John Baranick with DTN, the back-and-forth conditions are typical for this time of year.

“This is usually how it works. We're trying to go from the really cold temperatures in winter to the really hot ones in summer. And when you go through that transition period here, March and April especially, that's the perfect time to just ride it. Get some bursts of heat coming through—they won’t last long. You get some cold bursts coming through—they won’t last long.”

Baranick explains that these rapid shifts are simply part of the seasonal transition, as the atmosphere adjusts between winter cold and summer heat.

Looking ahead, forecasters are also keeping a close eye on conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean. A shift from La Niña to El Niño is expected later this year, and some speculation on social media has even labeled it a potential “Godzilla El Niño.”

Baranick says while the terminology may vary, the underlying concern is the same—a strong El Niño could be on the way.

“I mean, I guess you could just throw whatever word you want at it—gigantic, mega, ultra—but there is a pretty significant possibility there of a really strong El Niño coming back into play here later this year.”

He adds that current indicators suggest El Niño is very likely to develop.

“El Niño looks almost a guarantee. Things are setting up there in the Pacific Ocean where it's going to get warm rather quickly here over the next couple of months. Just how warm that's going to be is a little bit of a question mark, but I think there is potential there for it being really strong.”

The last major El Niño occurred just a few years ago, in 2023, and Baranick says this year may follow a similar pattern.

“We’re kind of trending that way. A lot of models are giving the same sort of idea, same shape, almost the same timing with it too, which makes the 2023 season kind of a good analog year to look at.”

For producers across the central United States, that could bring some favorable conditions.

“Needless to say, when we get an El Niño—whether it’s super strong or not—that tends to leave us with some pretty good conditions across the middle of the U.S.”

As spring continues to unfold, producers should expect more of the same temperature swings in the short term, while keeping an eye on how El Niño develops heading into the growing season.